Is China a real challenge to other Super Powers

Is China a real threat to Other World Powers ? 

This year, Beijing is marking the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party with ample “nationalist bravado” and “an avalanche of official party histories portraying China as a monolithic powerhouse. It also boasts to outpace United States in terms of strategic and economic growth. It’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative is a sure shot way to transport its finished products deep into Europe, Africa as well as entire Asian region. It also flexes muscles in the  Indian Ocean. 

Yet in tracing the course of China and the party over the past century , there are few reasons to believe that such triumphalism obscures a more complicated and varied past as the media is fully controlled and it is very difficult for an outsider to know what is really happening inside the iron curtains. Perhaps more important, it masks uncertainty about China’s future.

The day U.S. President Joe Biden entered in his Oval Office , the Chinese leaders declared that  ‘The East is rising,and the West is declining’. The second part of that declaration may draw eye rolls or angry objections in western and allied capitals. But the first has become a point of near consensus: a self-assured China, bolstered by years of dazzling economic performance and the forceful leadership of Xi Jinping, has claimed its place as a super world power and accepted the challenge of longterm competition with the United States is all but inevitable as a result.

So should the rest of the world accept Chinese hegemony, accept the autocratic way of governance, limited or no civil liberties behind its iron curtains. There is also a fear that due to its growing influence in world political landscape replication of its controlled and autocrat model elsewhere. 

It is also true that it’s stellar past performance does not guarantee future results. On closer examination, the obstacles to China’s continued success look daunting—as Xi himself is well aware, which accounts for both the urgency and the audacity of his agenda,. Ambition and execution are not the same thing and Xi has now placed China on a risky trajectory, one that threatens the achievements his predecessors secured in the post-Mao era. A similar dynamic is at play in the economic realm. Beijing’s recent policy record is one not of world-beating mastery but of failed attempts at sorely needed reform followed by panicked retreats to central control. Meanwhile, China’s official efforts to overcome “its own Gilded Age” have been hamstrung by Xi’s simultaneous suppression of the very forces that could tame inequality and corruption in the country.

Other risks loom beyond China’s borders. The perception of rest of the  world today looks from Beijing. China’s growing willingness to challenge U.S. dominance most Chinese observers now believe that the United States is driven by fear and envy to contain China in every possible way. Apart from US , other major economies are also alarmed with exponential growth of China 

The technological products behind China’s tremendous growth are largely developed incrementally, often as refinements of imported pre-existing technologies. This “import/ assimilate/re-innovate” model has proven to be a successful strategy, as China courts foreign companies to move their manufacturing facilities, then coerces those companies to share their technology with the state. While historically conducive to growth, the “import/assimilate/re-innovate model” does not foster a climate of original innovation. For China to truly become the dominant world economy, it will have to display true technological leadership.

Many of the Chinese institutions of higher education receiving governmental R&D grant money experience alarmingly high rates of academic dishonesty. And even when instances of scientific misconduct are exposed, the government agencies responsible for dispersing grant money are given little incentive to pursue or punish such allegations. A lack of adherence to principles of academic integrity prevents many Chinese research institutions from building credible programs and leads to government waste, fraud, and abuse in its R&D spending.

China’s advantage vis a vis other world economies was its availability of cheap labor, it is going to run out sooner than most people think. As China and its citizens become wealthier, and as fewer and fewer workers remain in the countryside as a new source of cheap labor, workers are already becoming more vocal in their demand for higher wages and better benefits. Add to this the coming demographic reality of an aging population of workers—many of them the product of the nation’s “one-child” family policies—and China’s days as the cheap-labor factory floor of the world will draw to a close.

Despite its strong centralization of political power, China often delegates substantial authority to its provincial and local governments over meeting national economic and environmental standards without being able to maintain the necessary oversight and management to ensure that such goals are being met. With locales not being held sufficiently accountable to meet national standards, progress tends to occur “in fits and starts” and is not experienced uniformly throughout the country. Oftentimes, this means central government funds and directed lending through state-owned banks is put to use by local and provincial authorities in ways inimical to innovation-led economic growth, such as overinvestment in property development. And because of its authoritarian government, oversight by opposition political parties and a robust free press is sorely lacking.

As the world is gearing up against the threat of Chinese dominance, The Quad, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has come up. It is a group of four countries: the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. Initially started as Maritime Co-operations among them began after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. Now, today the countries—all democracies and vibrant economies—work on a far broader agenda, which includes tackling security, economic, and health issues.

Over the years, the Quad’s diplomacy has waxed and waned. It is a loose grouping rather than a formal alliance. Japan initially emphasized the democratic identity of the four nations, whereas India seemed more comfortable emphasizing functional cooperation. Australian leaders have been reluctant about creating the impression that the group is a formal alliance. China has seriously taken notice of Quad’s activities and it’s relations with each of the Quad members have become more tense during the pandemic. U.S.-China tensions remain high; Beijing’s frustration was conspicuous when the new Biden foreign policy team had its first meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Alaska in March this year. Australia continues to bear the brunt of the Chinese Economic Sactions after suggesting a World Health Organization investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year. India and Japan have clashed with China over  territorial disputes. Lot of tension is visible on Indo Chinese border due to its skirmishes. In fact, China’s ambassador to Tokyo has publicly criticized Prime Minister Suga, claiming that the new Quad diplomacy reflects a “Cold War mentality” and that it is “100 percent outdated.” In addition, recent polls have shown negative views of China have soared among public space across the region.

Think Tanks as well as the policymakers in the Quad countries see an advantage in trying to contain Chinese influence militarily. Instead, the Quad leaders have emphasized cooperation across areas of shared interest to bolster confidence in the democracies’ ability to counter China’s assertion of regional influence. As long as tensions with China remain, the Quad’s agenda is likely to expand as the democracies of the Indo-Pacific seek to balance China’s growing power.

If we compare India with China in terms of export volume India is far behind , while during April-March 2020-21 it is estimated at USD 493.19 Billion, on the other hand China is No 1 exporter in the world , last year its export volume was $2.59 trillion. So at the moment there is no comparison between the two economies . Another important hard reality is that 

China remains India’s largest import market and the second-largest export market after the US. Its share in India’s total exports rose two percentage points to 7.3 per cent in 2020-21 from 5.3 per cent in 2019-20. Despite of tension on border , imports from China rose 59.13% to $33.49 billion, while exports to China rose 46.09% to $10.41 billion. India has to work on long term strategy to end its dependence on China for core sector imports, it is easier said than done but it has no other choice but to make even trade balance. Democratic values of India make everything transparent , that is a very big advantage to it. In today’s fast changing geo-political situation , if india innovate and manufacture world class products , chances are that many countries will be eager to import from India to substitute imports from China counter balance It. 

It is an interesting game to watch.