Why ASEAN Is So Much Important for India ?
Not many Indians know about ASEAN. I tried to discuss with few of my well-educated friends but even they did not have fair idea about the organization or its member countries.
Well, ASEAN is acronym of The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it is a political and economic organization like European Union (EU). It consists of ten South East Asian countries viz. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam. If you look carefully, they have their natural borders either with South China sea or close to each other.
The organization was founded half a century ago in 1967 initially by Narciso Ramos, Adam Malik, Thanat Khoman, S Rajaratham, Abdul Razak Hussain leaders of five major South East Asian countries viz. Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. This was the time of cold war and polarized atmosphere, and the alliance aimed to promote stability in the region. Over time, the group expanded to include five more member country.
This regional cooperation was further extended with the creation of the ASEAN Plus Three forum in 1997, which included China, South Korea and Japan. And then the East Asia Summit , which began taking place in 2005 and has expanded to include India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia and the United States.
Why ASEAN is so important?
It the only regional economic community of its kind outside Europe and North America, aims to promote collaboration and cooperation among member states, as well as to advance the interests of the region as a whole, including economic and trade growth. It has negotiated a free trade agreement among member nations. This further extended with other countries such as China, as well as eased travel in the region for citizens of member countries. Despite of disagreement on many issues among the members, the organization strives towards peace and stability in the region: members have signed a treaty pledging not to develop nuclear weapons, and most have agreed to a counter-terrorism pact, which includes sharing intelligence and easing the extradition process of terror suspects.
Economic Importance of ASEAN
If ASEAN were a country, it would be the seventh-largest economy in the world, with a combined GDP of US Dollar 2.6 Trillion in 2014. It is projected that by 2050 to rank as the fourth-largest economy.
Home to more than 622 million people, the region has a larger population than the European Union or North America. It also has the third-largest labor force in the world, behind China and India.
Professor Kishore Mahbubani, had been a top official with UN and an expert on political and economic affairs. He has co-authored his latest book 'The ASEAN Miracle : A Catalyst' with Jeffery Sng. We met with him at Taj Mahal Palace and Hotel yesterday. He was in the town to promote his book.
Prof Mahbubani says that when ASEAN was born on the 8th of August, 1967, it was destined to fail as its’ two predecessors, the Association of South-East Asia and Maphilindo (Malaya-Philippines- Indonesia), died within two years and the region was riven by wars in the 1960s and 70s. But over the years, ASEAN has brought durable peace and delivered prosperity, with Singapore the biggest beneficiary.
Despite disagreements on so many issues among its 10 members, ASEAN has served not only as the forum for cooperation with each other but also with powerful countries and entities such as the United States, China, the European Union, India, Japan and Russia.
Describing ASEAN as perhaps ‘the most under-rated organisation’, even among its own members, Prof Mahbubani says : ‘One reason why people are very confused about ASEAN is that it always takes two steps forward, one step backward, one step sideward - like a crab. It seems to be going around in circles.’ But the amazing thing is... when you watch it a decade later, it has gone there. It's amazing how it moves forward, decade by decade." ASEAN’s total trade has gone up 91 times since 1970, it is no mean achievement.
ASEAN and India
During the cold war period ASEAN countries were with US and India was a natural ally of Russia, so the mutual economic cooperation, political alignment could not take place. But the fact remains that culturally South East Asian nations are very close to India, in fact they look forward to India as spiritual and cultural leader.
With emergence of new geo political reality, New Delhi focusing on ties with Southeast Asia after converting its Look East Policy into an Act East Policy, in a unique first, all the leaders of 10 ASEAN nations, after participating in the commemorative summit here, will collectively attend the Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2018, as chief guests.
Mahbubani says that India is a latecomer in developing ties with Southeast Asian nations.
In his book he mentions, ‘Even though it (India) became politically decolonised in 1947, it remained colonised for several decades and continued to look towards Europe and America for inspiration.’
It the wind of change started seen in 2012, at the 20th anniversary commemorative summit, that the ASEAN-India Vision Document was adopted and the relationship was elevated to that of a strategic partnership.
‘As ASEAN comes under renewed stress from the growing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, India could provide a strategic balance,’ feels Mahbubani . ‘India has an opportunity to develop a 20-year plan to enhance its relationship with ASEAN.’ Elaborating on this, the he says that the worst-case scenario for ASEAN would be a schism resulting from member-countries being forced to choose between China and the US. ‘If this rivalry intensifies, the only power that can provide ASEAN with a geopolitical buffer is India’ he further tells.
Stating that the India-ASEAN relationship rested on the three pillars of culture, economy and geopolitics, the book, however, adds: ‘’A tripod is stable when all its legs are equally strong, but the tripod supporting the ASEAN-India relationship still needs a great deal of work.’
The authors point out that as a trading partner of ASEAN, India ranked seventh below China, the European Union (EU), Japan, the US, South Korea and Australia.
Stressing on the need to boost cultural ties, his book refers to the fact that, of the 10 ASEAN nations, only Vietnam and the Philippines do not have cultural roots in Indian civilization, though there are people who believe that even Vietnam had cultural links with the eastern Indian state of Odisha dating back to a thousand years.
‘No other partner, not the US, not Europe, and not even China, can match India's long historical association with Southeast Asia’ Mehbubani says.
Apart from India, the book also describes ASEAN's relationship with the other great powers -- China, the US, the EU, and Japan.
Dwelling on the strengths of ASEAN as a regional bloc, Mahbubani and Sng opine that the first and most important was a sense of community among the 10 member-nations.
‘The sense of identity that the people of ASEAN have developed is not the same as the sense of identity that the people of Europe have clearly developed’ Mahbubani says.
This apart, the mutual trust and confidence among the ASEAN leaders, ‘Although often invisible to the international community, is one of ASEAN's greatest strengths ‘, he says.
Regarding ASEAN's weaknesses, Mahbubani of the view that there is no natural custodian of the bloc, unlike the EU which remains strong and resilient because France and Germany have accepted the common responsibility of keeping the organization going.
He writes that Indonesia, accounting for 40 per cent of the region's population, could be a logical choice. However, if Jakarta was not forthcoming, the authors name Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand as the three other natural candidates.
ASEAN And China-US Race For No.1
Relations between the United States and China were always destined to end up in difficult territory. Whenever the world’s number two power i.e. China is about to overtake the world’s number one power i.e. United States, relations inevitably getting difficult. This is despite the fact that China largely depending upon large US market and US is looking China as the potential buyer of its Treasury Bills !
Their is an ancient proverb in Sri Lanka : when the elephants fight, the grass suffers. They also add, wittily, that when elephants make love, the grass also suffers. There will be many accidental victims of U.S.-China turbulence. One of the most vulnerable will be the ASEAN.
Paradoxically, one of the key reasons why ASEAN became very strong in the 1980s and 1990s was because of an informal strategic agreement between Beijing and Washington to work together to strengthen ASEAN. Now ASEAN is in danger of facing the opposite: both Beijing and Washington may be tempted to use ASEAN as an instrument to embarrass the other.
It appears that this game of trying to use ASEAN has already begun. The United States is clearly tempted to use ASEAN as an instrument to embarrass China over its assertive actions in the South China Sea.
Today, the region is home to around 240 million Muslims, 130 million Christians, 140 million Buddhists, and seven million Hindus, all of whom live in relative peace and cohesion – a notable achievement, given the unrest that is currently unfolding in Europe due to Brexit, where Britain is in already in the process of leaving the European Union.
Despite disagreements on so many issues among its 10 members, ASEAN has served not only as the forum for cooperation with each other but also with powerful countries and entities such as the United States, China, the European Union, India, Japan and Russia.
Describing ASEAN as perhaps ‘the most under-rated organisation’, even among its own members, Prof Mahbubani says : ‘One reason why people are very confused about ASEAN is that it always takes two steps forward, one step backward, one step sideward - like a crab. It seems to be going around in circles.’ But the amazing thing is... when you watch it a decade later, it has gone there. It's amazing how it moves forward, decade by decade." ASEAN’s total trade has gone up 91 times since 1970, it is no mean achievement.
ASEAN and India
During the cold war period ASEAN countries were with US and India was a natural ally of Russia, so the mutual economic cooperation, political alignment could not take place. But the fact remains that culturally South East Asian nations are very close to India, in fact they look forward to India as spiritual and cultural leader.
With emergence of new geo political reality, New Delhi focusing on ties with Southeast Asia after converting its Look East Policy into an Act East Policy, in a unique first, all the leaders of 10 ASEAN nations, after participating in the commemorative summit here, will collectively attend the Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2018, as chief guests.
Mahbubani says that India is a latecomer in developing ties with Southeast Asian nations.
In his book he mentions, ‘Even though it (India) became politically decolonised in 1947, it remained colonised for several decades and continued to look towards Europe and America for inspiration.’
It the wind of change started seen in 2012, at the 20th anniversary commemorative summit, that the ASEAN-India Vision Document was adopted and the relationship was elevated to that of a strategic partnership.
‘As ASEAN comes under renewed stress from the growing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, India could provide a strategic balance,’ feels Mahbubani . ‘India has an opportunity to develop a 20-year plan to enhance its relationship with ASEAN.’ Elaborating on this, the he says that the worst-case scenario for ASEAN would be a schism resulting from member-countries being forced to choose between China and the US. ‘If this rivalry intensifies, the only power that can provide ASEAN with a geopolitical buffer is India’ he further tells.
Stating that the India-ASEAN relationship rested on the three pillars of culture, economy and geopolitics, the book, however, adds: ‘’A tripod is stable when all its legs are equally strong, but the tripod supporting the ASEAN-India relationship still needs a great deal of work.’
The authors point out that as a trading partner of ASEAN, India ranked seventh below China, the European Union (EU), Japan, the US, South Korea and Australia.
Stressing on the need to boost cultural ties, his book refers to the fact that, of the 10 ASEAN nations, only Vietnam and the Philippines do not have cultural roots in Indian civilization, though there are people who believe that even Vietnam had cultural links with the eastern Indian state of Odisha dating back to a thousand years.
‘No other partner, not the US, not Europe, and not even China, can match India's long historical association with Southeast Asia’ Mehbubani says.
Apart from India, the book also describes ASEAN's relationship with the other great powers -- China, the US, the EU, and Japan.
Dwelling on the strengths of ASEAN as a regional bloc, Mahbubani and Sng opine that the first and most important was a sense of community among the 10 member-nations.
‘The sense of identity that the people of ASEAN have developed is not the same as the sense of identity that the people of Europe have clearly developed’ Mahbubani says.
This apart, the mutual trust and confidence among the ASEAN leaders, ‘Although often invisible to the international community, is one of ASEAN's greatest strengths ‘, he says.
Regarding ASEAN's weaknesses, Mahbubani of the view that there is no natural custodian of the bloc, unlike the EU which remains strong and resilient because France and Germany have accepted the common responsibility of keeping the organization going.
He writes that Indonesia, accounting for 40 per cent of the region's population, could be a logical choice. However, if Jakarta was not forthcoming, the authors name Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand as the three other natural candidates.
ASEAN And China-US Race For No.1
Relations between the United States and China were always destined to end up in difficult territory. Whenever the world’s number two power i.e. China is about to overtake the world’s number one power i.e. United States, relations inevitably getting difficult. This is despite the fact that China largely depending upon large US market and US is looking China as the potential buyer of its Treasury Bills !
Their is an ancient proverb in Sri Lanka : when the elephants fight, the grass suffers. They also add, wittily, that when elephants make love, the grass also suffers. There will be many accidental victims of U.S.-China turbulence. One of the most vulnerable will be the ASEAN.
Paradoxically, one of the key reasons why ASEAN became very strong in the 1980s and 1990s was because of an informal strategic agreement between Beijing and Washington to work together to strengthen ASEAN. Now ASEAN is in danger of facing the opposite: both Beijing and Washington may be tempted to use ASEAN as an instrument to embarrass the other.
It appears that this game of trying to use ASEAN has already begun. The United States is clearly tempted to use ASEAN as an instrument to embarrass China over its assertive actions in the South China Sea.
Today, the region is home to around 240 million Muslims, 130 million Christians, 140 million Buddhists, and seven million Hindus, all of whom live in relative peace and cohesion – a notable achievement, given the unrest that is currently unfolding in Europe due to Brexit, where Britain is in already in the process of leaving the European Union.
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