Twisting Tail of Dragon

India and China both have great cultural history. China has given lot of things to the world in ancient time that includes printing technique , silk et al.On the other hand India happened to be a great hub of education, seekers from the far flung areas used to come to attend great Indian universities such as Takshila and Nalanda. Time changed India reeled under Islamic invaders and European traders who ultimately became rulers. Trade of China was also controlled by Britishers and Portuguese during 18th century. We do not want to go into details of why this happened but the fact is that from last 50 years China has emerged as super power, it now has aspiration to control the entire region as per its own whims and fancy. This reminds me during forties economic power Germany tried to control entire Europe and equally economically strong Japan attempted to replace a seemingly economically weakened and isolationist United State as the predominant Pacific Power which ultimately converted into first world war. So it appears that now China also suffers like these predecessors from the hubris of its economic progress - that with escalating territorial disputes with neighbours, especially those who allied with the current super powers. It seems to change the current global order by force of arms. India has been a victim of China's regional aspirations , it faced Chinese aggression in 1962, Pakistan its ally in the game plan give away some of our strategically important area in Gilgit of occupied part of Kashmir for some hidden consideration, being a weak democracy at that time as well as not understanding it's Geo Political and strategic importance, we had allowed this transfer. Much water has flown in Ganges as well as Yangtze rivers, India has capacity to strike any of the Chinese city through it's ballistic missiles, now it will be in our own interest to understand how the world in general and China's neighbours in particular respond to Chinese aspirations.

Basically the aim must be to persuade China to take the path that Germany and Japan took after their military defeats to gain global power and prestige through trading state strategy rather than their failed military option. In fact there is an ongoing debate in China between reformers who advocate more international cooperation and a commitment to International values. On the other hand there are nationalists and conservatives who want to recover the lost territories and position China as geo-political super power, which would erase the limitations and humiliation of the past. through a more assertive foreign policy. So out come of this great internal debate will determine whether the long peace under the US imperium continues or we shall witness another large scale global war.

Of course there are certain ways to contain China. The first one is to build on continuing need for China to keep raising its per capita income as the legitimacy of the increasingly insecure and paranoid Chinese Communist party depends on this. Hence though there is much understandable chargin at China's mercantilist economic policies- and it may be tempting for the trading partners to try and stem its economic rise by following the tit for tat policy-this would be a mistake. Irrespective of protectionist policies, including exchange rate protection, of the Chinese currency, the best option for other countries is still to follow liberal foreign trade and investment policies. Eventually, as it slowly happening, the Chinese themselves will come to see that their mercantilism only harms the economic welfare of their own country.

Similarly, given the anst over chinese foreign investment buying up the world except for a few strategic industries, it is still in the interest of the rest of the world to welcome Chinese foreign investment. These liberal international economic policies also provide those in China seeking to improve the per capita standard of their populace towards those of advanced countries powerful argument against hawks who seeks to use military force to acquire power and prestige.

In the recent years, the India China trade crossed billion US Dollars mark, there seems to be a perceptible change in the Chinese hostility, it shows lot of attitude and muscle flexing but avoiding serious conflict. Not only this, in international economic forums, on many occasions, it align with Indian view point.

To many, this may not be enough to persuade the present rulers of China read Communist Party against using force to change the global order.Their hardcore belief will also needed to change. The first of these is to prevent the Chinese from dealing with their various adversaries in territorial disputes bilaterally, as is it's want. this is relevant in China's current dealings with other claimants in the maritime disputes in the sea to China's south, and with riparian states states of the two major rivers flowing from Tibet i.e. Brahmputra and Mekong. US, Japan and India watching these developments with great interest and trying to bring all the stakeholders and one security umbrella. With introduction of 3rd aircraft carrier Vikramaditya and closer naval co-operation between other stake holders Chinese aspirations may be contained to certain extant.
In the South China sea, the Philippines has filed unprecedented arbitration case against China with UN' International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. perhaps instead of dealing bilaterally with Chinese in the territorial disputes, the other countries involved follow Philipines example.

The good thing happened recently, all countries who are facing dispute that China provoked in the South Sea are already making an informal volition to counter it's military rise.This is based on creating, resurrecting and strengthening their military links with each other as well as United States of America. India's ' Look East ' policy though formulated very late also fit into it.India has already entered into Strategic Agreement with USA, it will give added power to the colition.